Nueava

Methodology

Everything below is open. If you spot an error, email us — we correct confirmed errors within 48 hours.

1. Data sources

Source: MOE P1 vacancies and balloting data ↗ · MOE — Registration phases and key dates ↗ · MOE — Changes to the P1 Registration Framework ↗ · SG Schooling ↗

2. Registration phases (current rules)

Each registration exercise runs through these phases in order:

  1. Phase 1 — a sibling studies at the school.
  2. Phase 2A — a parent or sibling is a former student (including alumni association members), a parent is on the School Advisory or Management Committee or on the school's staff, or the child is in the MOE Kindergarten at the school.
  3. Phase 2B — a parent has volunteered at least 40 hours under the school's scheme, is endorsed by the church or clan connected to the school, or is endorsed as an active community leader (only for schools within 2 km of home). 20 places are reserved for Phase 2B.
  4. Reserved Phase 2C places — 40 in the 2022–2026 exercises. From the 2027 exercise (P1 2028): 60 at schools with at least 180 P1 places; smaller schools keep 40. The extra places come from the earlier phases.
  5. Phase 2C — every child not yet registered. When there are more applicants than places, priority goes in this order, with a ballot in the group where places run out:
    1. SC <1km
    2. SC 1–2km
    3. SC >2km
    4. PR <1km
    5. PR 1–2km
    6. PR >2km
  6. Phase 2C Supplementary — for children still without a place after Phase 2C.
  7. Phase 3 — international students, after all Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents have been placed. This tool does not cover Phase 3.

From the 2027 exercise, 12 schools run a two-track Phase 2C: places are split equally between children living within 2 km and beyond 2 km, with no distance priority inside a track. Citizens still come first, and places left in one track after its citizens go to citizens in the other track. Some schools also cap Permanent Resident intake in Phases 2C and 2C Supplementary; we do not model that cap.

Before the 2022 exercise the rules were different: Phases 2A1 and 2A2, no reserved Phase 2C places, and distance measured from the school's centre. We show results from those years as history but leave them out of trends.

3. How we read your chances

For each school and your profile:

  1. We check gender (single-sex schools).
  2. A sibling at the school (Phase 1): very likely. Phase 2A or 2B: we say you may qualify but don't estimate it, because those phases can ballot at popular schools and our data covers Phase 2C.
  3. Otherwise we place you in a Phase 2C group: citizenship and distance band.
  4. We compare your group with the latest year's indicator: above it reads Likely, below it Unlikely, and the same group means a ballot (Possible). Where MOE published the ballot chance for that group, we use it. These bands are rules applied to the latest result; they have not been tested against past outcomes.
  5. Distance: we measure a straight line from your postal code's point to the school's point. MOE measures the shortest distance from the school land boundary to your home building, which can only be shorter. Near the 1 km or 2 km line we show what the better band would mean and ask you to check OneMap School Query. Our distance is an estimate, not your official band.
  6. For P1 2028 onward (the 2027 exercise), the 12 two-track schools show "New rules — not estimated" until MOE publishes results under those rules. Other schools show a reading based on the latest results under the 2022 rules, with a note on the 60-place change.

4. Trend (v1)

For each school we fit a straight line through Phase 2C subscription (applicants ÷ places) for 2022–2026, the years run under the current rules, and extend it to your target year. We report:

It is deliberately simple and has not been backtested. Treat it as a direction, not a forecast.

5. What we don't model

6. Refresh cadence

We refresh after MOE publishes each exercise's results (usually August–September). Latest results: .